Current trends in health reflect an important contemporary shift towards
citizen engagement for health and prevention, as opposed to mere disease management.
However, broadcasting generic health messages (e.g. ‘do this, don’t do that’) has limited effects unless there is a convincing, easily perceived and personally customized body of evidence to back healthy choices.
Therefore osteoarthritis (OA) risk calculators have been developed to help the public perceive the risks of osteoarthritis.
Existing tools base their risk estimation on evidence from one study, e.g. OAPoI , TOARP  and MSK 
We created a new OA risk calculator that uses medical evidence from recent high evidence level medical publications, AEGLE. Aegle was said to have been the daughter of Epione. Her name means "Shine", "Brilliance", either from the beauty of the human body when it is in good health, or from the price paid to the medical profession.
The NOUS OA Risk Calculator is expandable and can include new risk evidence when this is published. The tool is based on the CARRE health risk ontology and expands the CARRE health risk database (CARRE is an EU FP7 ICT project, Contract No. 611140).
Use the Osteoarthritis Risk Calculator here.
Get the software from Github here, by cloning the folder Risk Calculator in our repository.
 Osteoarthritis Policy Model, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, USA, https://pivot.bwh.harvard.edu/ongoing-projects/oapol/
 Joseph GB et al. Tool for osteoarthritis risk prediction (TOARP) over 8 years using baseline clinical data, X-ray, and MRI: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative. J Magn Reson Imaging. 2018 Jun;47(6):1517-1526. doi: 10.1002/jmri.25892
 Musculoskeletal Calculator, by Versus Arthritis and Imperial College London, UK, https://www.versusarthritis.org/policy/resources-for-policy-makers/musculoskeletal-calculator/msk-calculator-faq/
Risk is the probability of a negative outcome on the health of a population of subjects.
The agents responsible for that risk are called risk factors when they aggravate a situation and are
used to predict (up to a degree) the occurrence of a condition or deterioration of a patient’s
dividing the population into high and low risk groups.
In our project we used the risk factor conceptual model and ontology developed in the CARRE EU FP7 ICT project and available via the NCBO BioPortal
CARRE risk factor ontology – conceptual model.
In order to identify high-level medical evidence of risk factors related to osteoarthritis, we searched systematically in PubMed during September 2021. PubMed (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/) is a biomedical citation database provided by the USA National Library of Medicine and is considered one of the most comprehensive sources for biomedical literature search. The database provides citation details for more than 33 million scientific publications in the biomedical sciences, including guidelines and systematic reviews and meta-analyses produced by commonly accepted independent evidence bodies such as Cochrane Collaboration.
(osteoarthritis risk) AND (meta-analysis) AND (last 5 years)
Query as in PubMed
(("osteoarthritis"[MeSH Terms] OR "osteoarthritis"[All Fields] OR "osteoarthritides"[All Fields]) AND ("risk"[MeSH Terms] OR "risk"[All Fields])) AND ((y_5[Filter]) AND (meta-analysis[Filter]))
meta-analyses reporting on risk for osteoarthritis
studies considering their evidence level low or
Initially we retrieved 393 publications and after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria,
we retained the following:
Freiberg A, Bolm-Audorff U, Seidler A. The Risk of Knee Osteoarthritis in Professional Soccer Players. Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2021 Jan 29;118(4):49-55. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.m2021.0007
Nie D, Yan G, Zhou W, Wang Z, Yu G, Liu D, Yuan N, Li H. Metabolic syndrome and the incidence of knee osteoarthritis: A meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. PLoS One. 2020 Dec 23;15(12):e0243576. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243576.
Wang X, Perry TA, Arden N, Chen L, Parsons CM, Cooper C, Gates L, Hunter DJ. Occupational Risk in Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2020 Sep;72(9):1213-1223. doi: 10.1002/acr.24333.
Wang J, Dong J, Yang J, Wang Y, Liu J. Association between statin use and incidence or progression of osteoarthritis: meta-analysis of observational studies. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2020 Sep;28(9):1170-1179. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2020.04.007.
Poulsen E, Goncalves GH, Bricca A, Roos EM, Thorlund JB, Juhl CB. Knee osteoarthritis risk is increased 4-6 fold after knee injury - a systematic review and meta-analysis. Br J Sports Med. 2019 Dec;53(23):1454-1463. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2018-100022.
Sun Y, Nold A, Glitsch U, Bochmann F. Hip Osteoarthritis and Physical Workload: Influence of Study Quality on Risk Estimations-A Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Findings. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jan 24;16(3):322. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16030322.
Zhang YM, Wang J, Liu XG. Association between hypertension and risk of knee osteoarthritis: A meta-analysis of observational studies. Medicine (Baltimore). 2017 Aug;96(32):e7584. doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000007584.
Kong L, Wang L, Meng F, Cao J, Shen Y. Association between smoking and risk of knee osteoarthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2017 Jun;25(6):809-816. doi: 10.1016/j.joca.2016.12.020
The above 8 publications produced 7 risk factors:
knee injury --> knee osteoarthritis
occupational exposure --> knee osteoarthritis
occupational exposure --> hip osteoarthritis
soccer playing --> knee osteoarthritis
metabolic syndrome --> knee osteoarthritis
hypertension --> knee osteoarthritis
smoking --> knee osteoarthritis
These risk factors are detailed in 28 different risk associations (OR= odds ratio, RR = relative risk)
if knee injury = Anterior Cruciate Ligament injury
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 4.2 (2.2 to 8.0)
if knee injury = Meniscal Injury
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 6.3 (3.8 to 10.5)
if knee injury = (Meniscal Injury) AND (Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury)
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 6.4 (4.9 to 8.3)
if job = agriculture
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.64 (1.33 to 2.1)
if job = metal worker
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.85 (1.25 to 2.76)
if job = building and construction
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.63 (1.39 to 1.92)
if job = floor and brick layer
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 2.51 (1.79 to 3.52)
if job = carpenter
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 2.49 (1.66 to 3.74)
if job = miner
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.47 (1.11 to 1.95)
if job = cleaner
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.51 (1.14 to 2.01)
if job = housework
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.93 (1.31 to 2.84)
if job = service worker
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.79 (1.36 to 2.37)
if job = craftsman
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.56 (1.17 to 2.09)
if occupational activity = lifting
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.39 (1.22 to 1.59)
if occupational activity = kneeling
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.29 (1.05 to 1.57)
if occupational activity = standing
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.30 (1.09 to 1.53)
if occupational activity = climbing
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.49 (1.20 to 1.86)
if occupational activity = squatting
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.48 (1.21 to 1.81)
if occupational activity = walking
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.23 (1.01 to 1.52)
if occupational activity = sitting
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 0.77 (0.70 to 0.84) protective
if occupational activity = lifting
then hip osteoarthritis OR = 2.00 (1.34 to 2.99)
if job = agriculture
then hip osteoarthritis OR = 4.74 (2.84 to 7.89)
if (sex=male AND soccer playing status = professional)
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 2.25 (1.41 to 3.61)
if (sex = female AND metabolic syndrome diagnosis = yes)
then knee osteoarthritis RR = 1.23 (1.03 to 1.47)
if hypertension diagnosis = yes
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 1.49 (1.26 to 1.77)
if (sex = male AND smoking status = smoker)
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 0.69 (0.58 to 0.80) protective
if (sex = female AND smoking status = smoker)
then knee osteoarthritis OR = 0.89 (0.77 to 1.02) protective
if statin administration = yes
then osteoarthritis OR = 1.01 (0.96 to 1.05) no association
Only meta-analyses were included, however, a wider search might reveal individual cohort studies of high quality. Search was limited only to the last five years, only to PubMed and primary search results, and included only papers reporting risk for OA. Future work should expand to include any risk associated with OA and related conditions, diseases and comorbidities.
High level system architecture.
Adapted from CARRE D.2.2, 2014 https://www.carre-project.eu/project-info/deliverables-2/
repository to read the risk factors available.
It dynamically creates a web page to enter available risk factors, and produces the risk estimation.
OA risk factors identified by the above methodology were inserted in the CARRE repository via the provided risk entry interface.