1. The rotavirus epidemic in China is serious, but the vaccination rate is low, so there is a lot of room for improvement:
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that in children under the age of 5 in China, about 13 million cases of rotavirus diarrhea occur every year, about 2.5 million outpatient cases of rotavirus diarrhea every year, and about 230,000 hospitalized cases of rotavirus diarrhea every year. And rotavirus, once sick, has a high fatality rate. Rotavirus kills 3.5 out of every 100,000 children under age 5. However, many parents are unaware of the dangers of rotavirus and the benefits that oral vaccines can bring. According to the World Health Organization, rotavirus vaccines are accessible to only 47.5% of newborn children worldwide. That means more than half of all children are exposed to the rotavirus, which could put their health at risk if they become infected.
2. Rotavirus vaccine development status:
Rotavirus vaccine is regarded as the most economical and effective means to prevent rotavirus infectious diarrhea. However, current rotavirus vaccines are prone to side effects. After using the injection vaccine, some children will have mild diarrhea and vomiting; The existing side effects of the oral rotavirus vaccine include temperature reaction and digestive tract reaction. However, no severe side effects and death were reported.
The mild reactions after oral vaccination are mostly one-off, and it has sound protective effects and safety.
3. International rotavirus incidence. In developed countries, rotavirus is usually relatively low in mortality. Still, rotavirus kills at least 200,000 patients each year in developing countries and is often the leading cause of fatal diarrhea in infants and young children. That means that in developing countries, where the environment is relatively harsh and the economy is low, babies in those environments are more susceptible to rotavirus. They don't have the financial resources to buy a rotavirus vaccine. This gives us the direction to develop and improve oral vaccines for children and reduce making them.
The oral vaccine aims to provide people with A more convenient and efficient way to prevent rotavirus. After oral immunization, the role of the vaccine is to stimulate the body to produce immunity to group A rotavirus and prevent diarrhea caused by group A rotavirus in infants and young children.
After oral administration of this vaccine, there will be no serious side effects. Only a few children will appear to have mild diarrhea, vomiting, 2~3 days can disappear. For children under 3 years old, 5 days after the first dose, some may have a low fever, loss of appetite, restlessness, and decreased activity. The second dose had only a mild fever. By the third dose, these phenomena were less frequent.
There are generally no adverse reactions after oral administration. There are occasional mild reactions such as low fever, vomiting, and diarrhea within 8~72 hours after taking the vaccine, which is transient and does not require special treatment. Symptomatic treatment is necessary.
The research method
To investigate the public acceptance of our product, we used research methods like a street interview and online questionnaires.
According to the 702 responses we collected on the online questionnaire, many people underestimate the infectivity and danger of rotavirus. When people are asked whether they will accept our vaccine if we succeed in developing an oral rotavirus vaccine that is safe and effective, 75.63% of the respondents support our team and think it is acceptable or very acceptable. 19.94% of the respondents are in a wait-and-see state. Only the remaining 4.42% of the respondents are not able to or do not accept the marketization of our research results. Thus, the responses from the online questionnaire show that most people are willing to take our project once it is being invented. This result boosts our confidence in our plan of commercializing the product.
We selected people's Square in Shanghai as the sampling site for street interviews. We roughly divided the samples into four categories: childless women (7 persons), childless men (4 persons), childless women (12 persons), and childless men (4 persons). After we analyzed the response of the samples, we noticed that the market acceptance is very high, which shows that our oral vaccine market prospects are very promising. Rotavirus has not received enough attention from the public, and people's knowledge of oral vaccines is generally low. As a result, our research on developing oral rotavirus vaccines is meaningful, and the future market is promising.
Our company was founded on the purpose of developing and selling a vaccine with a richer flavor profile; however, as we did more and more research, we found that the world highest rates of death from related diarrhea were in Africa and South Asia, where only 3% of the global vaccine stockpile is available. Thus, we decided to bring our vaccine to these countries to increase the availability of oral rotavirus vaccine in countries with poverty. At the same time, exporting a second will boost the depressed rotavirus market and inspire major vaccine companies to research more effective and lower-cost vaccines, thus giving more low-income countries or regions equal access to humane care.
The global rotavirus vaccine market remains depressed due to the weakness of the supply chain and the imbalance of the distribution of products. However, the market demand is greater than the supply globally.
Diarrhea cases caused by rotavirus account for 25-50% of severe diarrhea. However, 80% of rotavirus vaccines are sold in HICs (High-Income Countries), only 3% of rotavirus vaccines are sold in LICs(Low-Income Countries) that concentrate highest infection rate in the whole world (India and South Asia)
According to the speculation of GVMM below. (Global Vaccine Market Model), middle and high-income countries have less need to be vaccinated. As for the LICs, the demand for rotavirus vaccines is greater than the total number of vaccines required for any other country. It proves that the supply of vaccines in LICs is way less than the demand.
“The recent supply disruptions in 2017-2019 characterize the RV market’s imbalance, level of supply insecurity and fragility, low state of health, and identify the need for additional interchangeable supply and supplier diversity.” UNICEF
“Even though 90 percent of severe diarrhoeal cases globally occur in Africa and Asia, of which rotaviruses alone account for 25 to 50 percent of the cases。 In terms of World Bank country classifications, HICs account for approximately 80 percent of the RV market by value, with low-income countries (LICs) making up only three percent, and MICs making up 17 percent”. UNICEF
Because of the disruption of the vaccine supply chain, the vaccines are supplied by a company that faces a lack of vaccine production and risk capacity. This aggrandizes some instability to an already unstable rotavirus market. According to the table below, the vaccine system as a whole is currently in a low health state, which is not a good sign.
“The current revised HMF evaluation for RV (Figure 9) demonstrates that the RV market is now in a low to moderate state of health, with supply largely dependent on one supplier that faced manufacturing issues and lack buffer capacity.” UNICEF
According to the table below, we can find that only two vaccines have completed the Phase 3 clinical trial. The major vaccines are Rotarix, Rotateq (Merck), and Rotarix (Lanzhou Institute of Biological Products). Therefore, these five vaccines count as our competitors.
Oral attenuated/live rotavirus vaccine:
Rotarix (Lanzhou Institute of Biological Products)
Compared with these vaccines, the expected advantage is the high social acceptance because it has been years since they came into use. However, our products still have an edge like the price. Since we employ other economical ways to produce the vaccine, we can lower the cost without losing many benefits. Therefore, it is less urgent to gain social acceptance when it compares to the price.
Other non-negligible factors are vaccines that finished Phase III clinical trial.
NRRV (P2-VP8) PATH vaccine is a non-replicative vaccine. It is effective for children to absorb, but it has the common disease of a non-replicative vaccine. In addition, it is not safe enough because it is hard to ensure that all the DNA replication function is cut off.
oral live-attenuated RV3-BB, Biofarma, Indonesia
This vaccine has the same advantage as other live-attenuated vaccines. Also, it has the same disadvantage as others: the R&D cost is too high. It is easy to find a way to compete with this vaccine.
|Lower price||Social acceptance||The lack of Vaccine in LICs||The attention of other powerful firms|
|Less time on R&D|
Market size and recent changes:
According to the statistical data of Evaluate Pharma, the global vaccine sales revenue increased year by year from 2017 to 2019, reaching $32.5 billion in 2019.
Considering the research and development of COVID-19 vaccine in 2020, the surge in global demand, and McKinsey's estimate, 10 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine will be needed in the next two years. Although the current international price of a COVID-19 vaccine is about 20 US dollars, the global vaccine market will reach 41 billion US dollars in 2020 after preliminary calculation.
According to WHO data, among 25 countries globally, 1.6 billion doses of vaccines were purchased in Southeast Asia in 2019, accounting for 29.63% of the global vaccine purchase volume. In vaccine market size, high-income countries in the Americas and Europe account for about 70.06% of the vaccine market size, leading the global vaccine market.
Despite low annual vaccine demand, these high-income countries dominate the global vaccine market with their relatively high price systems and high-quality product mix.
It can be seen that compared with developed countries, some developing countries and underdeveloped countries have less purchase and use of vaccines, and the vaccine market remains to be developed. However, the incidence of rotavirus-related disease in these countries is much higher than in developed countries, and there is a greater need for vaccines than in developed countries.
So in these countries, there is a huge market to explore.
Future expectations: Based on our market research, we have made some assumptions about the product's future development. In the early stages, our company will focus on exploring markets in emerging countries. The need for such vaccines is more significant than in developed countries and where the market will be enormous. Furthermore, considering that the domestic vaccine market is relatively complete, we hope to enter the domestic market after accumulating sufficient capital.
Marketing Strategy 4P analysis:
Product: We're now developing an oral vaccine against rotavirus that has fewer side effects than the injectable vaccine and doesn't require an injection, so kids will be more willing to cooperate with their doctors. After completing the research and development, obtaining certification, and entering the market, we will control the price of the vaccine, reduce the cost of the hospital to buy the vaccine, and make the hospital more willing to cooperate with us.
Price: Since most of our future markets are developing countries, we will adjust the cost to a relatively low level and sell in small profits and quick turnover. One is to make it affordable for these countries, and the other is to help these countries achieve social benefits.
Place: We will promote and sell to hospitals, schools, and health organizations in different countries.
Promotion: In today's world, with the rise of we-media and the Internet, we will be promoting the dangers of rotavirus and our vaccines on major media outlets like TikTok, YouTube, etc. Offline, we will also use relatively formal channels, such as health institutions (children's hospitals, etc.), schools, and other public places. In addition, we will cooperate with major hospitals, some public welfare organizations, and charitable foundations to increase sales.
Analysis of costs
Total costs include innovation cost and experimental equipment cost.
Innovation cost includes the following aspects:
Experimental equipment cost
Constant Temperature Shaker
Water Bath Machine
Constant Temperature Incubator
Gel Electrophoresis Machine
Raw Material Cost
e coli DH5α competent cells
Site Use Fee
Cost of Labor
Sale costs include the following aspects
Make a poster
Rental site for speech
Transportation costs of various materials
Drinks Producing Fare
Beverage producing line
Based on our team's rigorous and disciplined biogenetic experiments and the demand for this type of vaccine from the general population, our oral dose has excellent commercial prospects in the market. Furthermore, based on our team members' sophisticated data and financial planning, we will keep the cost of developing vaccines to a minimum while ensuring the safety and efficacy of the vaccine to solve or alleviate the rotavirus, a hot social issue.